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Of Blogs and Tweets

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Greetings from PenguWIN!

                            Some of our investors have asked why I have stopped writing blogs. I have also been asked as why I am not in tweeter. The story goes like this.

” I have been subscribing to a magazine called Value research for over 10 years now. Every year they publish an annual edition too. During the initial years or more than the first 5 years, I used to anxiously wait for the magazine to come and there are certain fund reviews and portfolio changes that I used to eagerly read. In the past 3 years, during the first 2 years I used to glance through the articles and in the last year, I have only opened it and seen the contents. It’s happened with the Monday edition of Economic Times and Business Line too.

Reason, nothing new that I could gain and it’s grinding the same flour “Aracha Mava Araikirathu” like we say in Tamil. So, if I talk about the same funds, financial freedom, market reactions, it’s becoming too much like changing the screen play but tell the same story again and again. Obviously, I can gauge the pulse of the audience through the interactions.

There are tons of Tamil movies (am sure in other languages too) where the story is about love between 2, fighting among themselves, others like family coming in to object and finally get happily married or both die or director leaves it incomplete for us to decide. A bit of comedy scenes here and there.

Of course, some of the new investors will definitely find it interesting (blog, I am least bothered about the movie)

There are areas like international investments, funding start-ups, estate planning that I try to read but don’t have enough competence to write an article.

Direct equity investing, analyzing company’s balance sheet, market share, management capability… has never fascinated me and I don’t spend time with that. Also, every fund house has a large army of analysts to rip these apart and I don’t intend to be smarter than them.

As far as tweeter goes, I guess I got influenced by Dr. Rajan, whom I have very high regards. When a reporter asked him (more than 2 or 3 years ago) as why he is not in tweeter, his response was, I can never articulate anything in such a small sentence – forgot the exact words. My writings are a little verbose and I thought I will find it difficult to express something concrete in twitter unless I start tweeting like ” I had an excellent meeting with x fund manager”, “Had Paradise Biryani for lunch 222 good”. “Met 3 clients today, hectic day”

So, what?

Some of the tweets in personal finance domain goes like this

“Warren Buffet created 84% of his wealth after turning 60!”

“Save for the rainy day!”

“Market is hot. Invest with caution”

” Start investing early and try to achieve financial freedom before 50″

“Bonds are for storing wealth and equities are for creating wealth:”

” Keep your expenses lower than your income”

“Being Debt Free is the best thing that can happen to you”

“Don’t be a trader. Be an investor”

“Don’t invest too much in real estate. Financial assets are the way to go”

I don’t want to comment on any of the above tweets and leave it to your judgement on the quality or benefit of these. But an hour ago, 2 financial advisors were fighting saying if you have taken my tweets, atleast give me the credit. I failed to understand any IP in the tweets and claiming credit. I normally don’t get into twitter – my mobile does not have the twitter app installed but a friend of mine pulled me into twitter, and when I was reading his message, I got to experience the feud.

A very happy weekend to you!

Market Exuberance

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Greetings from PenguWIN,

The stock markets are rising every day and Sensex closed today, 11th Dec 2020 at 46,099. From the low of 25,981 on 23rd Mar 2020, this is an increase of 77.4%. The worrying factor is that the fundamentals of profit, sales and GDP are not in tune with it.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been flooding our markets with huge amount of money. This money is going into select Large Cap companies in the Index, Sensex and Nifty. The speed at which it is flowing is abnormally high in business that deliver growth. The flow is not the same across all companies as some are expected to do better without any surprises in earnings growth.

While I am happy seeing the portfolio go up and up, I do worry at the back of my mind as its irrational.

In equity investment we have to be prepared for the long haul and not get carried away by highs and lows, until we reach the long-term objectives.

Retirement, one of the most important goals for every investor (creating a good corpus to retire peacefully) may be 20 or 10 or even less than 5 years away and depending on the time frame, it’s extremely important to make sure that the corpus allocation is right rather than being too conservative or too aggressive. The farther away the retirement, the more the risk tolerance.

Please feel reach out to me if you have any questions.

PenguWIN turns 6

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Greetings from PenguWIN, PenguWIN 6th Anniversary

                                           Today, we are 6 years old. Our sincere thanks to each one of you, for your patronage. Trust we are well set for a long innings. Initially, when I decided to move from corporate employment to entrepreneurship (whatever small business that we do), while there was a lot of support from friends and well-wishers, there was some scepticism from family members. It was a call between doing what you might not like the best vs what you love to do but may not be successful in monetary terms. Since I had a flair for Personal Finance from my management school days, I ensured that we (wife & daughter including) were covered for atleast 10 years based on my Networth at that point in time.  Hence, I decided to take the plunge to start PenguWIN.

While it may sound easy to do something that you really like, entrepreneurship has its own set of challenges, especially when you are a first-generation entrepreneur. Anyway, I am happy with my decision and honestly, never in these 6 years did I think of going back to corporate employment.

The Covid 19 pandemic has affected the economies of the entire world during the first half of this calendar year. The medical fraternity is still grappling with unknowns, how to find a cure and a vaccine. I hope they will counter this challenge and come out successfully in the shortest possible time.

Every company in India is struggling to sustain its business and contraction in our economy is unavoidable, given the complexity of problems that they face. The top 10 business groups of India including Reliance, Tata, Adani, Birla reported profit before tax loss of Rs.19,340/- crores in Jan-Mar 2020 quarter (Q4 FY19-20) compared to profit before tax gain of Rs. 48,500/- crores in Jan-Mar 2019 quarter (Q4 FY18-19).

The Indian equity markets have been on a roller-coaster ride in CY 2020. 

Sensex went all the way up to 42,000+ and then nose-dived to around 26,000 (38% fall in about 6 weeks) on Covid-19 fears. Now we are back to around 36,000 level as of yesterday, the 3rd July 2020. Again, no investor or analyst could predict the market. While common sense tells us that when the economy is struggling, market is expected to go down, though the extent might not be predictable. But how did the market go back to 36,000 level from 26,000 when the Covid 19 is doing more damage than initially envisaged.?

One thing that has made a difference during this period is the heightened awareness about Life and Health insurance – Individual spending on life and health insurance has gone up 25% year on year. Interest and enquiries on long term life and health insurance are hitting the roof. Please ensure that you and your family have adequate coverage of Life, Health and Critical illness insurance.

Whenever there is uncertainty and stress in the economy, gold is expected to do well. While too high an allocation of gold and in jewellery form is not a good idea, a small exposure (upto 10% of networth) to gold as a hedge is a good diversification strategy. Sovereign Gold Bonds, issued by Government of India is the best option as it can be held in Demat (no issue of safety as in physical gold) and also provides 2.5% interest rate. There are 6 issues during this year and issue 4 starts on 6th Jul, Monday. The details are provided in the table below. The price mentioned is for 1 gm of 24K pure gold and offline price. You get a discount of Rs.50 i.e. if you apply online through demat, the July 6th issue price would be Rs. 4,802/gm.

On a different note, the Covid spread and consequences is alarming (I know atleast a dozen doctors and healthcare specialists who are directly facing the Covid patients). So, please be extra cautious.

Feel free to reach out to us for any of your personal finance requirements and please do refer your friends and family.

There is only one boss: the customer. And he can fire anybody in the company, from the chairman on down. Simply by spending his money somewhere else. - Sam Walton.

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